Thursday, January 24, 2008

Benjamin Yeo prophecies ...

a failed bbq in december rain


Who is Mr Benjamin Yeo?
He is the Executive Director and Head of UBS Wealth Management Research. Today he spoke to about 40-50 people at today's ICPAS/ACCA Executive Lunch Series.


Here are some quotes from Mr Yeo that I managed to reap.
  • The initial phase of making easy money from the stock market is over. Going forth, look for valuation.
  • Consumption in US has never experienced negative growth. [I wonder why. Is it due to natural population growth? Or is it due to immigration numbers into US?]
  • Countries with high export as a percentage of GDP are Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. As such, any slowdown in consumption in US will have a significant impact on these countries.
  • Korea, Taiwan and Thailand have the lowest average market PE for the Asian equity markets. Based on data in Dec 2007.
  • In the equity sphere, emerging market - overvalued. Among other asset classes, real estate and commodities are overvalued with corporate bonds, undervalued.
  • Singapore, despite a year of bad export figures in 2007, still managed to post such strong growth figure.
In conclusion
  1. look for market with significant domestic demand

  2. look for healthcare and infrastructural themes in your investment

  3. flight to quality will continue ie. go for large capitalisation stocks

  4. more writeoffs could be expected in the coming months - which would give us a more difficult first half of 2008.

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